Adapting to Climate-Change-Induced Drought Stress to Improve Water Management in Southeast Vietnam

Abstract:

In Southeast Vietnam, droughts have become more frequent, causing significant damage and impacting the region’s socio-economic development. Water shortages frequently affect the industrial and agricultural sectors in the area. This study aims to calculate the water balance and the resilience of existing water resource allocations in the La Nga-Luy River basin based on two scenarios: (1) business-as-usual and (2) following a sustainable development approach. The MIKE NAM and MIKE HYDRO BASIN models were used for rainfall–runoff (R-R) and water balance modeling, respectively, and the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was used to estimate the magnitude of the droughts. The results identified areas within the Nga-Luy River basin where abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions are common, as well as subbasins, i.e., in the southeast and northeast, where severe and extreme droughts often prevail. It was also shown that the water demand for the irrigation of the winter–spring and summer–autumn crop life cycles could be fully met under abnormally dry conditions. This possibility decreases to 85–100% during moderate droughts, however. In contrast, 65% and 45–50% of the water demand for irrigation is met for the winter–spring and summer–autumn crop life cycles, respectively, during severe and extreme droughts. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that the water demand for irrigation could still be met 100% and 75–80% of the time during moderate, and extreme or severe droughts, respectively,

through increased water use efficiency. This study could help managers to rationally regulate water in order to meet the agricultural sector’s needs in the region and reduce the damage and costs caused by droughts.

1. Introduction

2. Methodology

2.1. Study Area

2.2. Methodological Approach

2.3. MIKE HYDRO BASIN

2.4. Input Data for MIKE Models

2.5. Model Performance Evaluation

2.6. Scenarios Simulations

2.7. Quantifying the Magnitude of the Droughts

3. Results and Discussion

3.1. Model Calibration

3.2. Water Availability and Allocation under Climate Change

3.3. Water Balance of the La Nga and Luy River Basins

3.4. Drought Assessment and Prediction

3.4.1. Abnormally Dry Conditions

3.4.2. Moderate Drought Scenario

3.4.3. Severe Drought Scenario

3.4.4. Extreme Drought Scenario

3.5. Assessing the Response of the Irrigation System to Different Drought Scenarios

4. Conclusions

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► See detail:   Adapting to Climate-Change-Induced Drought Stress to Improve Water Management in Southeast Vietnam

Phong Nguyen Thanh 1,2, Thinh Le Van 3, Tuan Tran Minh 3, Tuyen Huynh Ngoc 3, Worapong Lohpaisankrit 4 ,
Quoc Bao Pham 5 , Alexandre S. Gagnon 6 , Proloy Deb 7 , Nhat Truong Pham 8, Duong Tran Anh 1,2
and Vuong Nguyen Dinh 3,*
                     1 Laboratory of Environmental Sciences and Climate Change, Institute for Computational
                        Science and Artificial  Intelligence, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam;
                        phong.nguyenthanh@vlu.edu.vn (P.N.T.); duong.trananh@vlu.edu.vn (D.T.A.)
                     2 Faculty of Environment, School of Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam
                     3 Southern Institute of Water Resources Research, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam; lethinh912@gmail.com (T.L.V.);
                     tranminhtuan04@gmail.com (T.T.M.); ngoctuyen42n@gmail.com (T.H.N.)
                     4 Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand;
                     woralo@kku.ac.th
                     5 Faculty of Natural Sciences, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, B˛edzi ´nska Street 60,
                     41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland; quoc_bao.pham@us.edu.pl
                     6 School of Biological and Environmental Science, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool L3 3AF, UK;
                     a.gagnon@ljmu.ac.uk
                     7 International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), NASC Complex, Dev Prakash Shastri Marg, Pusa,
                     New Delhi 110012, India; debproloy@gmail.com
                     8 Computational Biology and Bioinformatics Laboratory, Department of Integrative Biotechnology,
                     College of Biotechnology and Bioengineering, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon 16419, Gyeonggi-do,
                     Republic of Korea; truongpham96@skku.edu
                   * Correspondence: dinhvuongkhtlmn@gmail.com

Sustainability 2023, 15, 9021                                                                     https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability