Assessment of spatial changes in extrene rainfall over Da-Thao river watershed using high-resoution dynamical downscaling method

This paper explores spatial changes in extreme rainfall in the Da-Thao river watershed during the 20th century and projects the changes toward the end of this century based on the high-resolution dynamical downscaling method (WEHY-HCM model). The results show that the short-duration extreme rainfall is expected to increase in most places of the catchment lying in Vietnam territory. The intensity of 1- and 3-day extreme rainfall is projected to increase significantly in Son La and Lao Cai provinces, while in some parts of Lai Chau and Yen Bai provinces, the extreme rainfall tends to decrease compared to the baseline period 1991-2010. Thus, the results of this study are considered to be a good reference supporting decision-making processes for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction for downstream areas.

1. Introduction

2. Materials and method

2.1 Study area

2.2 Dynamical downscaling model

2.3 Extreme rainfall indices

3. Result and discussion

3.1. Changes in extreme precipitation indices in the past climte

3.2 Projection of changes in extreme precipitation indices in the furture

4. Conclusion

5. Acknowledments

REFERENCES

[1] H. Endo, A. Kitoh, T. Ose, R. Mizuta, and S. Kusunoki, “Erratum: Future changes and uncertainties in Asian precipitation simulated by multiphysics and multi-sea surface temperature ensemble experiments with high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation models (MRI-AGCMs) (Jo,” Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres. 2013.

[2] M. L. Kavvas, S. Kure, Z. Q. Chen, N. Ohara, and S. Jang, “WEHY-HCM for Modeling Interactive Atmospheric-Hydrologic Processes at Watershed Scale. I: Model Description,” J. Hydrol. Eng., 2012.

[3] Z. Q. Chen, M. L. Kavvas, K. Fukami, J. Yoshitani, and T. Matsuura, “Watershed Environmental Hydrology (WEHY) Model: Model Application,” J. Hydrol. Eng., 2004.

[4] Ho, C., Nguyen, A., Ercan, A., Kavvas, M.L., Nguyen, V. and Nguyen, T. 2018. Assessment of atmospheric conditions over the Hong Thai Binh river watershed by means of dynamically downscaled ERA-20C reanalysis data. Journal of Water and Climate Change.jwc2018291 https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.291

[5] D.H. Nam, K. Udo, and A. Mano, “Downscaling super-high-resolution climate model output for extreme raifall projection,” J. Japan Soc. Civ. Eng. Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Eng., 2013.

[6] A. B. G. Klein Tank and F. W. Zwiers, “Guidelines on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation,” World Meteorological Organization, 2009.

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► See detail: Assessment of spatial changes in extrene rainfall over Da-Thao river watershed using high-resoution dynamical downscaling method

Do Hoai Nam, Phan Cao Duong
Hydraulic Construction Institute
Email: namdh_vkhtl@yahoo.com
Ho Viet Cuong, Nguyen Thi Ngoc Nhan, Tran Van Bach
Key Laboratory of River and Coastal Engineering

International conference water resources research on water resources security,
disaster prevention and climate change adaptation